Finanza computazionale

Create, train, and compare three deep learning networks for predicting credit default probability.

Train a credit risk for probability of default (PD) prediction using a deep neural network. The example also shows how to use the locally interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) and Shapley values interpretability techniques to understand the predictions of the model. In addition, the example analyzes model predictions for out-of-sample values and performs a stress-testing analysis.

Outperform the traditional BSM approach using an optimal option hedging policy.

Use Deep Learning Toolbox™ to train a network and obtain predictions on barrier option prices with a Heston model.

Construct trading strategies using a deep learning model and then backtest the strategies using the Financial Toolbox™ backtesting framework. The example uses Deep Learning Toolbox™ to train a predictive model from a set of time series and demonstrates the steps necessary to convert the model output into trading signals. It builds a variety of trading strategies that backtest the signal data over a 5-year period.

Use the Reinforcement Learning Toolbox™ and Deep Learning Toolbox™ to design agents for optimal trade execution.

A reinforcement learning (RL) approach to maximize the probability of obtaining an investor's wealth goal at the end of the investment horizon. This problem is known in the literature as goal-based wealth management (GBWM). In GBWM, risk is not necessarily measured using the standard deviation, the value-at-risk, or any other common risk metric. Instead, risk is understood as the likelihood of not attaining an investor's goal. This alternative concept of risk implies that, sometimes, in order to increase the probability of attaining an investor’s goal, the optimal portfolio’s traditional risk (that is, standard deviation) must increase if the portfolio is underfunded. In other words, for the investor’s view of risk to decrease, the traditional view of risk must increase if the portfolio’s wealth is too low.

Apply a backtest strategy to measure the performance of a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is trained and validated on limit order book (LOB) data of a security.