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glmfit not working: US's chances of recession
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Pedro Alves
il 18 Set 2020
Commentato: Star Strider
il 19 Set 2020
close all
A=[ind us2y10 rec];
X=[ind us2y10];
[logitCoef] = glmfit(X,rec,'binomial','link','logit');
yfit=[ones(359,1) X]*logitCoef;
plot(yfit);
Hello everyone!
I'm trying to estimate a logit model for the probability of recession in the US, based on a constante factor, the inddustrial production and US yield curve slope for 2y and 10y. The results are not the one supposed to be, since the model is presenting out of bounds ([0,1]) estimates.
Thanks in advance for your time in checking the script.
Cheers,
Pedro
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Star Strider
il 19 Set 2020
T1 = readtable('USREC.xls');
ind = T1.ind;
us2y10 = T1.us2y10;
rec = T1.rec;
X=[ind us2y10];
logitCoef = glmfit(X,rec,'binomial','link','logit');
yfit = glmval(logitCoef,X,'logit');
figure
plot(X(:,1), yfit);
grid
xlabel('ind')
ylabel('‘rec’ Fit')
sortX = sortrows(X,1) % Sort ‘X’ First
yfit = glmval(logitCoef,sortX,'logit');
figure
plot(sortX(:,1), yfit); % Cleaner-Looking Plot
grid
xlabel('ind')
ylabel('‘rec’ Fit')
producing this plot:
![](https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/answers/uploaded_files/362848/image.png)
I am not certain what you are doing, or how to interpret this, however this plot appears to meet the [0,1] criterion.
.
4 Commenti
Star Strider
il 19 Set 2020
As always, my pleasure!
I appreciate the reference. I will consider getting the book for my library, since I could certainly benefit from such a source.
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